On a balmy July evening in Atlanta, the resounding crack of the bat reverberated through Truist Park as Cal Raleigh sent baseballs soaring into the sultry summer air. Each swing was a testament to his power and precision. With his father on the mound and his younger brother catching every pitch, Raleigh wasn’t just participating in the 2025 Home Run Derby. He was etching his name in the annals of baseball history. As the night drew to a close, he had become the first catcher and first switch-hitter to clinch the contest outright, thrilling fans with a staggering 54 home runs and a nail-biting final-round triumph over Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero. The crowd erupted, the lights danced, and the Mariners slugger stood on the podium, a triumphant smile beneath his helmet, savoring the moment. What followed, almost predictably, was not just jubilation, but also a hint of doubt.
Whispers of a so-called “Home Run Derby curse” surfaced almost immediately, as they do every year. The theory has become as much a part of baseball lore as the event itself. It suggests that those who shine brightest during the Derby’s fireworks display are doomed to sputter once the regular season resumes. Sluggers, so the thinking goes, swing themselves into exhaustion or lose the rhythm of their natural mechanics chasing home runs under the spotlight. It is a story that resurfaces every July, repeated with the certainty of superstition, as if launching balls over fences for one night is somehow enough to derail months of momentum.
However, the reality, as revealed by the numbers, is far more complex and less damning. For years, analysts have dissected the so-called curse, meticulously examining post-Derby statistics in search of a discernible pattern. What they have unearthed is far from a curse. Participants in the Home Run Derby do, on average, experience a dip in second-half performance. But so do many of their peers who do not partake in the Derby. This is not a curse at play. It is simply a case of regression to the mean. Players selected for the Derby typically enjoy an exceptional first half, and maintaining such a level of performance is a challenge for any athlete. When their numbers dip, it is not due to a jinx or a misstep in their swing. It is because they were performing at an unsustainable level to begin with.
Take Pete Alonso, one of the Derby’s modern kings. After winning in 2021, he went on to hit even more home runs per plate appearance in the second half. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the 2023 champion, followed his Derby title with a consistent stretch that mirrored his first-half production. Teoscar Hernández, who won in 2024, posted a minor OPS bump after the break and remained one of the most dangerous hitters in his league. Even Juan Soto, often cited as a victim of the Derby’s effects after his 2022 appearance, was impacted by a midseason trade and the move to the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park, which dampened his offensive stats more than any mechanical hangover ever could.
This isn’t to say that no players have struggled. Some have. Chris Davis in 2013, for instance, saw a notable dip after competing. But isolating individual cases proves little. Any hitter, Derby participant or not, can fall into a slump. Baseball is a game of stretches and streaks, of timing and adjustment. Pinning a cold streak on a single night in July ignores the hundreds of variables at play throughout a 162-game season.
Indeed, for many players, the Derby is more than just a stage for stardom. It can be a catalyst for confidence, a celebration of their ascent, a moment of pride shared with family and teammates. For Cal Raleigh, it was all this and more. His performance in Atlanta was not just a showcase of his raw power; it was also a testament to his skill. It was a glimpse into the maturity of a player coming into his own. In a semifinal round that culminated in a razor-thin tiebreaker, Raleigh remained composed. As he entered the final round, he found another level. By the end of the night, he had captivated the national audience and solidified his position as a cornerstone of Seattle’s future.
His swing, notably, has not shown any signs of derailment. Mariners coaches and analysts report no mechanical changes. His approach at the plate remains measured, balanced, and explosive. Raleigh was one of the standout performers in the All-Star Game that followed, showing not only power but intelligence by using the league’s new experimental challenge system to overturn a called strike. That sharpness has carried into the second half of the season. He continues to post elite barrel rates and maintains his position among league leaders in home runs. If there is a curse waiting for him, it is running late.
Baseball is a sport that thrives on tradition, but it also leans heavily on myth. From the belief in "clutch genes" to the idea that some parks are inherently magical, fans and media alike often resort to simple narratives to explain complex realities. The Home Run Derby curse fits neatly into that pattern. It is dramatic. It is mysterious. It gives meaning to random slumps and offers an easy answer when performance declines. But in the era of Statcast, spray charts, and predictive models, the data doesn’t support it. The myth endures only because it feels true, not because it is.
As the 2025 season rolls on, Cal Raleigh is writing his narrative. It is not one of superstition but of sustained excellence. He is not shrinking from the moment but growing into it. The Derby didn’t break his swing. It announced his arrival. If anything, what happened in Atlanta may one day be seen not as the beginning of a slump, but as the turning point in a breakout campaign. The only curse in sight is the one Raleigh seems to be putting on opposing pitchers every time he steps into the box.
References
“Latest Home Run Derby winners prove contest curse is a myth.” New York Post, July 20, 2025.
“With family support, Cal Raleigh becomes first catcher, switch‑hitter to win Home Run Derby.” AP News, July 15, 2025.
“Seattle's Cal Raleigh wins 2025 Home Run Derby, first catcher and switch‑hitter to win competition.” CBS News, July 14, 2025.
“2025 Major League Baseball Home Run Derby.” MLB.com, July 14, 2025.
“Home Run Derby Curse: Fact or Fiction?” SABR Journal.
Daniel E. O’Leary, “Is There a Home Run Derby Curse?” SSRN, December 18, 2015.
Serge DeFroda, et al., “Home Run Derby Participation in Major League Baseball,” PMC, 2021.
“Debunking MLB’s ‘Home Run Derby Curse’.” ESPN, July 2025.
“FanPost Friday: Have a week, Cal Raleigh!” Lookout Landing, July 18, 2025.
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