Hungary’s Orbán vs. the EU: How Budapest’s Russia Ties Threaten European Unity

Published on 21 July 2025 at 21:32

The European Union, a bloc founded on principles of unity and shared values, is increasingly challenged by an internal force that actively undermines its collective front, particularly amid the volatile landscape of the war in Ukraine. Hungary, under the long-standing leadership of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, has emerged as the primary disruptor, employing a calculated strategy that leverages geopolitical crises to reshape its position within Europe and beyond. Budapest’s actions are not merely a matter of dissenting foreign policy; they are deeply intertwined with Orbán’s domestic power consolidation, his regime’s financial interests, and a broader geopolitical hedging strategy that seeks to extract concessions from Brussels while forging closer ties with non-EU powers.

 

Undermining Unity: The Ukraine War Front

 

Hungary's consistent obstruction of European Union efforts to support Ukraine and sanction Russia has profoundly fractured the bloc's united response to the ongoing invasion. This disruptive stance is particularly evident in Budapest's approach to crucial sanctions packages and Ukraine's aspirations for EU membership.

The EU's sanctions regime against Russia, expanded significantly since the full-scale invasion in 2022, operates under a critical procedural vulnerability: all sanctions require unanimity among member states and must be formally renewed by the European Council every six months. This procedural detail has been expertly exploited by Hungary, transforming a mechanism for consensus into a potent tool for leverage and obstruction. The immediate and severe threat posed by Hungary's current blockade is stark: if sanctions are not renewed by the March 15, 2025, deadline, over 2,400 sanctioned individuals and businesses could be freed from EU restrictions, and tens of billions of euros in frozen Russian assets, potentially over €60 billion, could be unfrozen. This would directly jeopardize vital financial aid programs for Ukraine, including G7 loans backed by windfall tax revenues from frozen Russian assets, and significantly dim hopes for future war reparations and reconstruction funding.  

 

 

A concerning shift in Hungary's tactics has been observed. While past opposition frequently involved demanding explicit concessions, recent instances suggest that Hungary is making "no demands at all" when blocking sanctions. This departure from transactional leverage points to a deeper, perhaps ideologically driven, opposition or a direct strategic alignment with external interests, such as those of Russia or even the United States, as some Brussels sources suggest. Beyond sanctions, Hungary has also consistently blocked EU military aid to Ukraine and refused to back a "pro-war" stance, further isolating Kyiv within the bloc and complicating collective security efforts.  

 

 

Parallel to its obstruction of sanctions and aid, Hungary has maintained firm and vocal opposition to Ukraine's European Union membership, directly contradicting the aspirations of most other member states. Prime Minister Orbán has claimed a "democratic mandate" derived from over 2 million votes in the "Voks 2025" public consultation, which he asserts gives his government the authority to oppose the opening of accession chapters with Ukraine. However, this claim faces a stark counter-narrative from the Hungarian opposition, with figures like Péter Magyar alleging a significantly lower turnout of no more than 600,000 participants and dismissing the consultation as state-funded "propaganda". This discrepancy reveals a deliberate strategy of information control and public manipulation, where Orbán manufactures domestic consent to legitimize his foreign policy on the international stage.  

 

 

Orbán's stated arguments against Ukraine's accession are that granting membership in its current state would be an act of "self-destruction" for Hungary, potentially dragging the EU into war with Russia, and that Ukraine's statehood itself is uncertain amidst conflict. This opposition is directly connected to Orbán's domestic political strategy, where he portrays upcoming national elections as a stark choice between "peace or war," positioning his ruling Fidesz party as the protector of Hungary from a perceived Ukrainian threat. By framing the debate in such existential terms, Orbán not only solidifies his base but also discredits domestic opposition by linking them to "pro-war" narratives, effectively turning foreign policy issues into powerful tools for internal political consolidation and electoral advantage.  

 

 

 

The Eastern Pivot: Forging New Alliances

 

Hungary's foreign policy has increasingly turned eastward, fostering deep economic and political ties with Russia and China, a significant divergence from the collective efforts of most EU members to isolate Moscow and reduce reliance on Beijing. This "Eastern Opening" policy, initiated by Orbán's government in 2010, aims to diversify Hungary's international relationships beyond its traditional European focus by actively fostering economic partnerships with non-European countries, particularly in Asia. This approach is not merely about economic diversification; it represents a deliberate ideological shift towards authoritarian models and a calculated challenge to the Western liberal order.  

 

 

Hungary maintains a persistent heavy reliance on Russian oil and gas, making it Moscow's largest energy customer in the EU, with significant purchases recorded even in January of the current year. Hungarian officials, such as Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, argue that halting Russian supplies would drastically increase Hungarian household energy costs, a scenario Budapest is determined to avoid. While energy dependency is a genuine economic concern, Orbán strategically weaponizes this dependency to justify his pro-Moscow stance and resist EU collective action, thereby turning a national vulnerability into a robust foreign policy tool that undermines Western unity. The long-term strategic entanglement is further cemented by the Paks II nuclear power plant project, which Russia is building, ensuring energy ties for decades to come. Ukraine has strongly condemned these energy deals, with an adviser to President Zelenskyy accusing Hungary of complicity in Russian war crimes, stating that "the Hungarians are paying for the knife". Hungary has also consistently opposed new EU measures targeting Russian energy, frequently joining forces with Slovakia to block such initiatives.  

 

 

Hungary has also positioned itself as a pivotal partner for China within the European Union. It was the first EU member state to formally join China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2015 and has since become a major recipient of Chinese foreign direct investment, with Chinese FDI exceeding that of France and Germany combined in 2023. The flagship project symbolizing this alignment is the $3.8 billion Budapest-Belgrade high-speed railway, a core component of the BRI. This project has been marred by a history of delays, cost overruns, and criticisms regarding its economic viability and transparency. Chinese companies, such as electric vehicle giant BYD, have relocated their European headquarters to Hungary, attracted by strong Sino-Hungarian relations and Hungary's unique exemption from certain Russian energy sanctions.  

 

 

Many analysts view Hungary's alignment with these authoritarian powers as a strategic move to capitalize on global tensions to its advantage, aiming to play a "bridge role" between East and West rather than committing solely to either bloc. There is a growing conviction within Orbán's government that the Western liberal democratic order is in decline, leading them to actively seek and emulate new models of governance and economic partnership found in Russia and China. This "Eastern Opening" is more than just economic diversification; it represents a deliberate geopolitical hedging strategy, positioning Hungary as an "outlier" within the Western alliance system, willing to resist broader de-risking and decoupling trends. By fostering deep ties with Russia and China and consistently resisting EU and NATO consensus, Hungary acts as an internal agent that actively weakens the Western alliance system, providing strategic benefits to non-Western powers and compromising collective security.  

 

 

 

The Corrupt Foundation: Power and Profit

 

Underpinning Hungary's disruptive foreign policy and its pivot eastward is a pervasive network of systemic corruption and cronyism, which serves not merely as a flaw but as a fundamental operational mechanism for Orbán's regime. This system, often described as a "mafia state" or "patronal autocracy," is driven by the twin motives of concentrating power and accumulating wealth, where public resources are systematically diverted for private gain through opaque, informal mechanisms rather than formal institutions.  

 

 

Concrete examples illustrate this illicit accumulation. Public assets are privatized, often at suspiciously low prices, and public funds intended for modernization and development are diverted to "pet projects" such as private football stadiums. The consolidation of wealth among the regime's inner circle is starkly demonstrated by the acquisition of significant national assets, like one of Budapest's largest hotels, by Orbán's son-in-law. This systemic corruption, coupled with the government's attacks on judicial independence, creates a chilling atmosphere for legitimate foreign investments, deterring transparent economic engagement.  

 

 

European Union funds, intended to foster modernization and uphold democratic values, are allegedly misused and diverted to solidify Orbán's domestic power base. The EU took the unprecedented step of freezing nearly all funds to Hungary in late 2022 due to serious concerns regarding judicial independence, widespread state-financed corruption, and human rights violations. However, Orbán has responded by "bludgeoning Brussels" with his veto power to force the release of these frozen funds. A notable instance occurred in December 2023, when European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen released €10.2 billion just before a crucial vote on Ukrainian accession to the EU, effectively buying Orbán's strategic absence from the ballot. This transactional use of veto power underscores that for Orbán, EU membership serves as a tool for leverage rather than a commitment to shared values. The subsequent European Parliament lawsuit against von der Leyen, alleging that she caved to Orbán's veto threat without adequate reforms, underscores the controversy and the perceived erosion of EU principles. For Orbán, the flow of EU money is existential, as it directly enables him to "dole out EU funds through public contracts to loyal supporters," thereby solidifying his grip on power and maintaining his patronage network. The continued, albeit contested, flow of EU funds, despite mounting evidence of corruption, inadvertently empowers Orbán's regime by providing resources that can be diverted to loyalists, thereby undermining the very democratic values and principles the EU purports to uphold.  

 

 

The regime's opacity extends to its significant infrastructure and energy projects with Russia and China, facilitating corruption and potential external influence. The Budapest-Belgrade railway project, a flagship of China's Belt and Road Initiative in Hungary, exemplifies this. Its feasibility study and contract have been classified for 10 years by the Hungarian government, and the Hungarian partner in the joint venture is controlled by Prime Minister Orbán's childhood friend, leading to widespread accusations of cronyism and a lack of public accountability. The project has been criticized for its dubious economic viability, with some estimates suggesting a return on investment in hundreds or even thousands of years based on current and expected traffic. Similarly, the Paks II nuclear power plant, a Russian-built project, has faced corruption risks identified in a 2014 study, as well as more recent allegations of structural damage and accounting disputes. The Russian partner, Rosatom, has often denied issues or provided vague responses, further obscuring oversight. Alarmingly, the staggering 40% profit growth of OTP Bank's Russian subsidiary in 2024 has raised questions, with reports suggesting that these funds were used to finance Russia's military logistics, including pontoon bridges for the invasion of Ukraine, which has raised serious concerns about Hungary's role in sanctions evasion. This deliberate lack of transparency in major deals not only facilitates domestic corruption but also creates significant avenues for non-EU powers to exert undue influence and potentially compromise Hungary's strategic autonomy and Western alignment.  

 

 

 

Orbán's Grand Chessboard: A Long-Term Strategy

 

Viktor Orbán's actions on the European stage are not isolated incidents but components of a meticulously crafted, long-term strategy designed to consolidate his power domestically and project his vision internationally. He has masterfully used international crises and the EU's procedural requirements to extract concessions and bolster his position. His transactional approach to EU membership is evident in his repeated use of veto threats over crucial issues, such as aid packages for Ukraine or its EU accession, to force the release of frozen EU funds. This behavior demonstrates that for him, EU membership is a tool for leverage rather than a commitment to shared values. His declared mission to "occupy Brussels" signifies an ambitious goal of reshaping the European Union from within, bending it to his vision of national sovereignty and "illiberal" governance.  

 

 

A sophisticated and often aggressive use of nationalist and anti-Ukraine rhetoric is central to maintaining and consolidating domestic support, discrediting opposition, and deflecting from internal challenges. Orbán frames upcoming national elections as a stark "referendum on peace or war," positioning his Fidesz party as the "party of peace" that protects Hungary from external threats, while demonizing opponents. This strategy is particularly aimed at neutralizing rising opposition figures, such as Péter Magyar, who is aggressively accused of a "treasonous pact" with Kyiv and portrayed as a "pro-Ukrainian agent" to undermine his growing popularity. The regime employs emotionally charged, even AI-generated, propaganda, such as animated scenes of bloodied Hungarian soldiers and rows of coffins, to instill fear and rally voters behind its protective stance. This systematic control over media and the judiciary enables the pervasive dissemination of pro-government narratives and effectively suppresses critical voices, ensuring a controlled information environment for his base. For Orbán, foreign policy is not merely about international relations. Still, it is primarily a sophisticated tool for domestic political survival, enabling him to deflect attention from internal issues, discredit the opposition, and rally his nationalist base.  

 

 

Orbán's seemingly disparate domestic and foreign policies are intricately linked to his broader, foundational concept of "illiberal democracy." This concept maintains the outward appearances of democracy, such as elections, while systematically undermining its core institutions, including the independence of the judiciary, the freedom of the press, and academic freedom. This model allows for highly centralized control and arbitrary actions, which in turn facilitate both systemic corruption and the pursuit of an independent foreign policy that is often confrontational and divergent from the EU consensus. His underlying belief is that the Western liberal democratic order is in decline, leading him to actively seek alternative, more authoritarian models in the East, specifically Russia and China, which he views as more compatible with his vision for Hungary. This internal dismantling of democratic institutions directly enables Orbán to defy EU consensus, pursue opaque deals with authoritarian states, and use foreign policy as a domestic tool, as he faces significantly fewer internal constraints or accountability for his actions. Orbán's successful model of transactional EU membership and "illiberal democracy" sets a dangerous precedent, potentially emboldening other EU member states or aspiring leaders to prioritize narrow national interests and autocratic tendencies over collective EU values, leading to further fragmentation and weakening of the bloc's liberal democratic identity.  

 

 

 

Conclusion: Implications for Europe's Future

 

Hungary's actions, including its consistent blocking of sanctions and aid, its vehement opposition to Ukraine's EU accession, and its deepening economic and political ties with Russia and China, collectively undermine the European Union's cohesion, values, and geopolitical standing. This multifaceted disruption poses profound challenges to the EU's united front, its ability to act as a coherent geopolitical actor, and its core values of democracy, the rule of law, and human rights, which are being eroded from within.

 

The EU stands at a critical juncture. The Hungarian model, characterized by its transactional approach to membership and its embrace of illiberal governance, challenges the fundamental premise of a union built on shared democratic principles. The bloc's response to this unprecedented internal challenge will define its future trajectory. Concrete, decisive action is urgently needed to uphold its founding principles and prevent the Hungarian model from becoming a blueprint for future internal disruption, ultimately shaping the future of the European project.

 

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