Mike Lawler, a seasoned politician with a track record of bipartisan cooperation, is considering a gubernatorial run in New York. His potential candidacy presents an interesting opportunity for a pragmatic, moderate Republican to break through in a state known for electing centrist politicians. Lawler has positioned himself as a moderate, focusing on practical issues like affordability, public safety, and quality of life, which resonate deeply with New Yorkers across the state. In a recent interview with WKBW TV in Buffalo, he highlighted themes, including the state’s high cost of living, the ongoing correctional officer strike, and energy and housing challenges. These are the kinds of issues that New Yorkers are grappling with daily, and Lawler’s emphasis on them could prove appealing to voters looking for a change.
Historically, New York has been a state where moderate Republicans have succeeded, with figures like Nelson Rockefeller and George Pataki paving the way for Republicans who governed with a focus on bipartisan cooperation and pragmatic policy solutions. Lawler’s emphasis on these same values places him squarely within that mold. He has a proven record of bipartisanship, ranking as the fourth most bipartisan member of the U.S. House in the 118th Congress, according to the Bipartisan Index, a measure that evaluates how often a member of Congress introduces bills that attract co-sponsors from the other party and how frequently they co-sponsor bills introduced from the other party. This makes him a candidate who could appeal to independent voters and moderate Democrats, especially in a political climate where frustration with the status quo is palpable.
However, Lawler’s prospects of winning the governorship are complicated by a significant obstacle: the Republican brand, especially in New York, has become deeply intertwined with Donald Trump. While Lawler may personally be more moderate and focused on issues like economic stability and public safety, the broader Republican Party, under Trump’s influence, has become increasingly associated with far-right policies and divisive rhetoric. As a result, even moderate Republicans like Lawler struggle to break through in a state that has grown increasingly resistant to the GOP brand.
Polling data underscores this point. In a February 2025 Citizen Data poll, Kathy Hochul led Lawler by 46% to 38%, with 10% supporting another candidate and 6% undecided. While these numbers suggest that Lawler is within striking distance, the real challenge comes from his association with the Republican Party. A March 2025 Siena College poll further illuminates this issue: when pitted against a generic candidate, Hochul trailed by 22 points, with 34% support for the incumbent and 56% backing the unnamed opponent. This stark contrast highlights the extent to which the Republican brand is toxic in New York, even when the alternative is a relatively unpopular Democratic governor.
What makes these polls especially telling is that the "generic candidate" in the Siena poll was not a Republican, further evidence that New York voters are looking for an alternative to Hochul but are unwilling to back a Republican, even a moderate one like Lawler. The association with Trump has tainted the GOP brand to the point where any candidate running under that label will be saddled with the baggage of the former president’s divisive politics. Lawler’s attempts to distance himself from Trump may not be enough to overcome the widespread perception that the Republican Party is out of touch with New York values.
This challenge isn’t new for the GOP in New York. In the 2020 presidential election, Trump lost the state by 23 percentage points, and his presence has remained a significant obstacle for Republicans seeking statewide office. Despite Lawler’s appeal as a moderate candidate with a focus on economic and public safety issues, the lingering influence of Trump makes it nearly impossible for any Republican to win statewide. The reality is that Trump’s grip on the party has redefined what it means to be a Republican, and that definition is far out of sync with the values of many New Yorkers.
Lawler's moderate positions might have made him a strong candidate in a different political climate without Trump’s cloud over the Republican Party. In that scenario, Lawler could have followed Rockefeller and Pataki's footsteps, positioning himself as a centrist alternative who could unite the state. But in today’s environment, the reality is that the Republican Party is seen as extreme in New York, mainly because of Trump’s influence. No matter how moderate a candidate may be, their association with the Republican Party and the broader perception of the GOP as out of touch presents an insurmountable challenge.
Even with his focus on issues that matter to New Yorkers, Lawler’s biggest hurdle will be overcoming the toxic reputation of the Republican Party. Trump’s influence over the GOP makes it difficult for any Republican candidate to separate themselves from the negative associations that come with running under that label. Lawler’s policies may be pragmatic, and his record bipartisan, but in the eyes of many New Yorkers, the Republican Party is synonymous with the far-right agenda championed by Trump. And that is a significant obstacle to Lawler’s success.
Ultimately, suppose Lawler could run without the Republican label. In that case, he might stand a better chance of unseating Hochul and appealing to the independent and moderate voters who are key to winning in New York. However, as long as Trump continues to define the Republican Party, Lawler, and any other Republican, will face an uphill battle. New Yorkers may be dissatisfied with Hochul but are not ready to take a chance on a Republican, even one as moderate as Lawler. The reality is that the influence of Donald Trump has made it nearly impossible for any Republican candidate to win in New York, and this dynamic will continue to hinder Lawler’s chances of becoming the state’s next governor.
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