New York City woke up to a “political earthquake” after progressive newcomer Zohran Mamdani stunned the establishment by beating former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic mayoral primary. Mamdani, a 33-year-old Assemblyman, led with roughly 43–44% of first-choice votes to Cuomo’s 36% when he declared victory. With nearly 94% of precincts reporting, Cuomo, once the overwhelming frontrunner, immediately conceded that “tonight was ... Mamdani’s night ... he deserved it ... he won.” Mamdani, who would become New York’s first Muslim mayor, told supporters he would be “your Democratic nominee for the mayor of New York City,” signaling a clear mandate for change. Mamdani's victory was an unexpected upset over a candidate with far deeper pockets and name recognition, evoking comparisons to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s 2018 win over Joseph Crowley.
Mamdani’s victory was driven by an insurgent grassroots campaign and a message focused on affordability. He ran on bold, progressive policies, rent freezes for stabilized tenants, free public buses and universal childcare, that energized young, left-leaning voters across the boroughs. By late Tuesday night, he was narrowly ahead with about 44% of the vote (to Cuomo’s 36%). His speech captured the atmosphere: “with a vision of a city that every New Yorker can afford, we have won … from Harlem to Bay Ridge…from Maspeth to Chinatown,” he declared to cheering supporters. Notably, Mamdani’s campaign enjoyed a surge among the youngest, college-educated voters; polls showed that 67% of 18–34-year-old college graduates ranked him first, and only 6% ranked him second, behind Cuomo. This reflected a generational shift.
Behind Mamdani’s campaign was a truly grassroots coalition. He reported an army of over 50,000 volunteers knocking on more than a million doors. His fundraising was likewise exceptional, with almost entirely small-dollar contributions. Mamdani’s team raised more than $3.6 million from donors (nearly 7,000 of them) in one finance cycle, which the city matched at an 8-to-1 rate, yielding about $2.8 million in matching funds. Indeed, his campaign hit the city’s public matching-fund cap of $8.3 million before any rival. A report noted that in one recent cycle, he raised just $640,000 from donors but received $2.8 million in public matching, illustrating how the public program magnified every small contribution. Fully 94.8% of his donations were from small donors. As Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez noted, “billionaires and lobbyists poured millions” against Mamdani. Still, his campaign prevailed thanks to “our public finance system.” In short, organized grassroots fundraising triumphed over big-money outside spending.
Mamdani’s victory highlights the power of New York City’s public matching funds and the case for expanding them. New York’s campaign finance system is among the strongest in the country: every dollar from a resident under $175 is matched at 8-to-1, giving “a greater voice to New York City residents” and allowing a “broader spectrum of candidates” to compete. Mamdani’s campaign was essentially built on that premise, harnessing small donations and turbocharging them with public funds, and the result was a winnable campaign where none might otherwise have existed. Many progressives now argue that if matching funds can propel a long-shot like Mamdani to the top of the ticket, the program should be even larger or open to more candidates to make elections truly fair. Working Families Party co-director Jasmine Gripper summed it up at Mamdani’s victory party: “Organized people can beat organized money.” His success will almost certainly be cited as proof that public financing is worth protecting and expanding.
Other progressives in New York should take note of how Mamdani built his coalition. He united the insurgent forces, leaving a single standard-bearer rather than splitting their base of support. By the end of the primary, the big progressive endorsements coalesced. Senator Bernie Sanders publicly backed Mamdani, praising his “thousands of grassroots supporters” who “took on the … establishment – and … beat them.” Rep. Ocasio-Cortez, who had campaigned for fellow progressives, called to congratulate Mamdani after his win. The Working Families Party. Which had previously scattered endorsements among progressives. Eventually, it threw its full support behind him, encouraging its voters to rank Mamdani first on their ballots. The WFP urged supporters to rank Mamdani No. 1 and rank Comptroller Brad Lander, City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, and other progressives behind him. This meant that when lesser candidates were eliminated, their voters primarily flowed back to Mamdani. It was a textbook use of ranked-choice strategy: progressive candidates and organizations unified their second-choice support to maximize the real winner. By contrast, several progressives who remained in the race without such a strategy (or who fell victim to infighting) only diluted each other’s strength. The lesson is clear: progressive campaigns must coalesce as Mamdani did. With unified endorsements, coordinated ranked-choice tactics, and relentless grassroots turnout.
This disciplined coalition-building was on full display even after the votes were in. Mamdani posed onstage with his former rival, Brad Lander, at his victory party. Lander had stepped aside in the final weeks and later explained that by cross-endorsing Mamdani, they had unleashed “a sense of hope … for hopeful politics” in New York. Lander’s post declared, “Hope and solidarity won tonight,” a message echoed by other progressives. Even former Assemblymember Zellnor Myrie and Rep. Ocasio-Cortez, who had also run, fell into line. The coordinated effort was reminiscent of past insurgent campaigns: Mamdani’s team knocked on one million doors and turned small donors into a power base. At the same time, leading progressives stood firmly behind him rather than splitting their votes.
What happens next for Andrew Cuomo is now the big question. Cuomo has already secured an independent ballot line for November by petitioning leaders for a new party called “Fight and Deliver.” Under New York’s fusion-voting system, a candidate can appear on multiple party lines in the general election. In practice, this means Cuomo could still be in the November race even after losing the Democratic nod. Cuomo has not ruled out that possibility: he told supporters he would “take a look” at the primary results before deciding what to do. The Working Families Party has already announced it will never endorse Cuomo, even if he somehow becomes the nominee, which effectively leaves Cuomo running only on his Fight & Deliver line. In short, fusion makes it possible for Cuomo to jump into the general election as a fifth candidate, running on Fight and Deliver, against Mamdani (Democrat), Eric Adams (independent), Curtis Sliwa (Republican), Jim Walden (independent) and others. This is a highly unusual five-way contest in New York’s recent history.
Recent polls underscore how risky that is for Democrats. In simulations conducted by the Manhattan Institute, Democrats fare worse with Mamdani at the top than with Cuomo. In a four-way matchup (Cuomo vs. Sliwa vs. Adams vs. Walden), Cuomo leads with 45%. In comparison, Sliwa gets 13% and Adams 11%. But when Mamdani replaces Cuomo as the Democratic candidate, Mamdani’s support drops to 33%. Adams rises to 19% (Sliwa 16%). In other words, without Cuomo, the Democrats’ plurality shrinks, and Mamdani falls short of a majority. A five-way poll including both Cuomo and Mamdani shows Cuomo at 39%, Mamdani at 25%, Sliwa at 12%, and Adams at 10%. Another striking finding: 73% of Mamdani’s voters said they’d be undecided if Cuomo entered the general election, indicating a base-vs-base standoff. In short, Cuomo’s presence splits the anti-Sliwa vote. The numbers suggest that Cuomo would likely win a fractured field (with Mamdani a weak second), whereas if Cuomo bowed out, Mamdani might come in ahead, but only with a low plurality at best. Notably, polling finds Cuomo far stronger among black and moderate voters than Mamdani; for example, in Cuomo’s scenario, 54% of Black voters supported him versus only 30% for Mamdani in the alternative scenario.
Democratic strategists are watching these dynamics nervously. Many in Adams’ camp privately hoped the November matchup would be Mamdani vs. Sliwa, not Mamdani vs. Cuomo so that Adams could reclaim Cuomo’s voters. Adams’ spokesman said on a primary night that his phone was “ringing off the hook” with would-be Cuomo voters who might pivot to Adams. The concern is plain: a five-way race could let Sliwa or Adams win with only a fifth of the vote. By contrast, a straight left-right contest between Mamdani and Sliwa (with Adams fading) would likely favor Mamdani given the city’s Democratic tilt. Even the Manhattan Institute’s conservative analysts conclude that a divided Democratic field gives an opening to non-progressives. Trip Yang, a Democratic consultant, called Mamdani’s win “the biggest upset in modern New York City history.” Still, he also warned that incumbents and moderates could capitalize on a split. In effect, all evidence points to one thing: Cuomo’s continued candidacy would likely siphon off just enough centrist votes to cost Mamdani the election.
For the sake of the party and a fair general election, Cuomo should stay out of November’s race. His new “Fight and Deliver” line means he can run, but that doesn’t mean he should. The polls show he has narrow crossover appeal but would fatally weaken Mamdani’s coalition. With Mamdani’s momentum and turnout, Democrats have a chance to win the mayoralty on a progressive platform, but only if they unify. Adding Cuomo as a spoiler would undo that momentum and risk a result none on the left want. One veteran pollster observed that “an unknown defeating Andrew Cuomo is a changing of the guard” in New York politics. To prevent this shift from being squandered, Cuomo must step aside. Suppose he truly wants to help the city. In that case, he will leave the general election to Mamdani and the Democratic Party rather than splitting the vote and endangering the very progressive future his base has just demanded.
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