Susan Collins has built her political brand around careful calculation, bipartisan credentials, and a disciplined understanding of Maine’s moderate electorate. She is one of the last Republicans standing in a state that leans blue at nearly every other level. Her career has endured changes in party leadership, swings in national politics, and growing polarization without being seriously threatened at the ballot box. But as she prepares for her 2026 reelection bid, Collins is facing a convergence of political forces that make this race potentially her most difficult yet, not because of one decisive event, but because of a slow erosion of advantages that once seemed durable.
The most immediate flashpoint is her vote against former President Trump’s latest signature legislation: a sprawling tax and spending bill referred to by his supporters as the “Big Beautiful Bill.” The legislation, which narrowly passed with Vice President J.D. Vance casting the tie-breaking vote, drew fierce criticism from Democrats for its deep cuts to Medicaid and food assistance programs. It also drew concern from rural and independent voters in Maine, where the healthcare infrastructure is fragile and federal support programs are widely relied upon. Collins ultimately voted against the bill, citing its impact on rural hospitals and social safety nets. She made clear that she had tried to work behind the scenes to negotiate amendments and carve-outs. When those efforts failed, she said, her only option was to oppose the final version.
That vote was entirely consistent with Collins’s long-established approach: work within the party, influence policy through negotiation, and when necessary, distance herself with a high-profile dissent. She employed a similar tactic with the 2017 ACA repeal efforts and during Trump’s two impeachment trials. Yet, the political environment has changed. The electorate is less responsive to nuance and more attuned to ideological clarity. The result is that Collins finds herself isolated. Conservatives see her as insufficiently loyal to the Trump wing of the GOP, while liberals view her as complicit in enabling a broader Republican agenda. What was once a centrist strength now risks becoming a position with little meaningful constituency.
Polling reflects this vulnerability. A Time Magazine survey conducted after her vote found that over 70 percent of Mainers, including a majority of Republicans, believe she should not seek another term. Her approval ratings, while not catastrophic, have dipped into the low 40s. Only 12 percent of Republicans “strongly approve” of her performance. These are warning signs for any incumbent, particularly in a state where her electoral margins have been declining. In 2020, she won reelection by eight points despite Biden’s nine-point statewide victory, a result that bucked national trends. That success was credited to her long-standing reputation and the weaknesses of her Democratic opponent. In 2026, neither may be enough.
Democrats see an opportunity. Maine is a rare blue-leaning state still represented by a Republican in the Senate. The Democratic base is energized, particularly on issues like abortion, climate, and healthcare. Collins’s vote for Brett Kavanaugh continues to resonate, especially among younger voters and women. Her opposition to Trump’s bill has not restored her standing with these groups. If anything, it has reinforced perceptions of inconsistency. National Democratic groups are closely watching the race and believe it could be crucial in determining control of the Senate.
Yet despite these advantages, Democrats are facing a persistent problem: they have not yet fielded a top-tier challenger. Jordan Wood, a former staffer for Katie Porter, is the most prominent declared candidate. He has posted substantial early fundraising numbers and begun traveling the state, but he lacks statewide recognition and has never held elected office. Other candidates, such as consultant David Costello and rural activist Natasha Alcala, have announced campaigns but similarly lack the kind of name recognition or political infrastructure that a serious challenge to Collins would require. The Democratic bench is not empty, but it is thin. Governor Janet Mills and Representative Jared Golden, both of whom could dramatically change the race by entering, have signaled no interest. As of mid-2025, the field remains open but underwhelming.
This creates a paradox for Democrats. The structural conditions of the race favor them; Maine votes for Democrats in presidential elections. The national political environment has not been kind to moderate Republicans. And Collins’s approval is weakening. Yet the race is still hers to lose, mainly because of the absence of a strong, unifying Democratic candidate. Suppose no one emerges who can consolidate support across the party’s various constituencies. In that case, the race may play out as a referendum not on Collins’s vulnerabilities, but on the Democratic Party’s inability to take advantage of them.
Collins, for her part, has not changed her basic strategy. She will continue to focus on Maine-specific issues, with a particular emphasis on her work in rural broadband, opioid treatment, and healthcare funding. Her campaign will likely avoid nationalizing the race, staying away from both Trump and Harris. She will rely on retail politics, earned media, and a robust field operation funded by a well-stocked war chest. Her campaign’s super PAC has already raised over $5 million, more than all of her current opponents combined.
Still, financial strength may not be enough to withstand a disciplined and well-resourced challenge. If Democrats can coalesce around a candidate who can speak credibly to Maine’s political culture, one that prizes independence and pragmatism over party loyalty, Collins could face the most serious reelection fight of her career. But time is a factor. Waiting too long to consolidate the field risks giving Collins space to define her opponents and reassert her brand. It also risks demobilizing voters who want change but are unsure who can deliver it.
The 2026 Maine Senate race is a test case for broader national dynamics. It will show whether Democratic voters can translate anti-Trump energy into strategic electoral action in rugged terrain. It will reveal whether moderate Republicans can still hold on in an increasingly polarized era. And it will help determine the balance of power in a Senate where every seat is likely to matter. For now, the story is one of potential. But if Democrats fail to develop a clear strategy with a credible messenger, Collins may once again do what she has always done: survive.
Add comment
Comments