When Senator Tina Smith announced on February 13, 2025, that she would not run for re-election, citing a desire to devote more time to her family, it triggered a political scramble for one of the few open Senate seats in a purpleleaning state. Minnesota was immediately reclassified from “likely Democratic” to “leans Democratic” by prognosticators such as the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan declared her candidacy within about an hour of Smith’s announcement. A citizen of the White Earth Nation, raised in suburban St. Louis Park by a single mother who was a lifelong DFL activist, she carved a path from community organizing among urban Indigenous families to the Minneapolis School Board, then to the Minnesota House, and ultimately to her current role as lieutenant governor. As a legislator, she sponsored laws to address the issue. She murdered Indigenous relatives, mandated tribal consultation in state governance, expanded state-supported childcare, and authored Minnesota’s first paid family and medical leave program.
Flanagan’s policy vision centers on systemic change underpinned by identity and economic justice. She emphasizes the importance of protecting reproductive rights, strengthening Medicaid and food assistance programs, investing in family farms, expanding childcare access, and addressing the structural inequities facing Native communities. She refuses corporate PAC money and positions herself as a people-powered candidate fighting for working families against policies driven by billionaires.
In contrast, Representative Angie Craig brings a different biography and policy lens. Born in Arkansas, raised in a mobile home park by a single mother, she worked her way through college, built a career in journalistic and corporate communications, and later led a workforce of 16,000 at a major medical device manufacturer in Minnesota. Since winning her congressional seat in 2018 over Republican Jason Lewis, she has represented a suburban-to-rural swing district south of Minneapolis, winning increasingly larger margins, culminating in a 14-point victory in 2024.
Craig’s policy profile is pragmatic and centrist. She focuses on public safety, economic populism, rural outreach, and kitchen-table concerns. She supports strengthening the southern border, combating the fentanyl crisis, keeping communities safe, lowering prescription drug prices, banning stock trading by members of Congress, imposing term limits, boosting affordable housing development, and deregulating to spur economic growth and construction. As the ranking Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee, she emphasizes family-farm policies and rural engagement, and calls for elected officials to align their messaging with swing and rural voters, not just progressive activists.
Craig’s campaign launch message framed her as a listener and problem solver who will bring tangible results to Washington. She criticized reflexive opposition to Republican policy positions, instead pledging to anchor Democratic messaging in shared goals, such as affordable housing, safe streets, economic opportunity, and integrity in government.
By mid‑2025, Craig had raised over $1.2 million in qualifications to her current House role, and by June, she had approximately $1.8 million on hand, more than double Flanagan’s $780,000 cash reserve. That early financial edge positioned Craig as the more heavily financed candidate in a race expected to cost upward of $10 million just in the primary stage.
The candidates also represent divergent visions for the Democratic coalition in the Trump era. Flanagan projects a transformational vision rooted in identity and progressive economic justice, arguing that actual change comes from empowering communities that have been historically excluded from power. Craig advocates for a coalition-building model centered on suburban and rural turnout, arguing that Democrats must expand their appeal, address safety and affordability concerns, and adopt moderate reform to regain majorities.
Endorsements reflect that divide. Flanagan has endorsements from progressive national leaders, including Elizabeth Warren, former Senator Al Franken, and Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison. In contrast, Craig has focused on demonstrating grassroots financial strength and emphasizing her record of delivering results in a swing district. However, she has yet to secure high-profile statewide endorsements. Neither Senator Amy Klobuchar nor Governor Tim Walz, despite their influence, has committed, though Walz has pledged to support whoever wins the primary.
An initial poll in February had Flanagan at 52 percent and Craig at 22 percent, with 27 percent undecided. However, that poll predated Craig’s statewide fundraising and outreach expansion, a dynamic factor that shifted the race.
As the two candidates crisscross Minnesota towns, holding listening sessions in Greater Minnesota, targeting union halls, farmers' markets, and suburban kitchens, policy becomes the arena of contest. Flanagan speaks of moral urgency, calling for structural solutions to child poverty, tribal sovereignty, and climate justice. Craig speaks of realistic reforms, bipartisan bills, and rural vibrancy, emphasizing housing and consumer costs over culture wars.
The primary is slated for August 2026, with a likely DFL endorsement process unfolding in spring 2026. The contest between Flanagan and Craig may define not only who represents Minnesota in the Senate but also the future strategy of the Democratic Party in purple states: whether identity and progressive boldness or economic security and moderate appeal will prevail.
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