In April 2025, reports surfaced that Russia had requested permission to station long-range strategic aircraft at Manuhua Air Force Base on Biak Island in eastern Indonesia. Although Indonesian authorities swiftly denied the claim, the mere suggestion of such an arrangement ignited international alarm and highlighted the complex geopolitical currents reshaping the Indo-Pacific. Regardless of the report’s veracity, it underscored critical questions about Indonesia’s foreign policy orientation, the region’s fragile security architecture, and the broader strategic contest among Russia, China, and the United States.
Indonesia’s geopolitical posture has long been commitment to non-alignment. Situated at the intersection of major sea lanes and straddling the crossroads of East and Southeast Asia, Indonesia has historically avoided taking sides in great power rivalries. Yet recent developments are testing that tradition. If genuine, the Russian-based proposal would represent a marked departure from Jakarta’s careful diplomatic balancing act, inviting scrutiny from regional neighbors and global powers. That is if Indonesia accepts.
Though not directly claimant in the South China Sea disputes, Indonesia is entangled in the region’s volatile geopolitics. Its waters near the Natuna Islands intersect with China’s expansive nine-dash line, a cartographic claim that Beijing uses to justify its presence in vast swaths of the sea. These overlapping claims have triggered repeated incursions by Chinese coast guard vessels into Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), prompting domestic backlash and fueling nationalist sentiment. A 2024 national survey found that nearly 80% of Indonesians viewed China as a threat to their sovereignty. Jakarta has intensified its diplomatic efforts in response while reaffirming its commitment to international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
For Russia, the Indo-Pacific represents an increasingly vital theater to assert its global relevance. Isolated from the West following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow is seeking new avenues to expand its influence and project power. Establishing a military foothold in Indonesia would serve multiple strategic goals: signaling its reach beyond Eurasia, gaining proximity to key maritime chokepoints, and reasserting itself in a region where Western influence remains significant. Russia’s ambitions are not limited to military considerations; its energy and defense interests in Southeast Asia, including joint oil and gas ventures with Vietnam in contested South China Sea waters, reflect broader economic stakes that complicate its strategic calculus.
However, Moscow’s push into Southeast Asia also risks unsettling its increasingly close but still cautious relationship with China. While Russia and China have strengthened their partnership through joint exercises and diplomatic coordination, their interests in the Indo-Pacific are not entirely aligned. Beijing has long viewed Southeast Asia as its informal sphere of influence. A unilateral Russian move in Indonesia, a country with a fraught relationship with China, could be seen as an unwelcome intrusion into Beijing. Unlike the relatively coordinated dynamics between the two powers in Central Asia or the Arctic, the South China Sea remains a theater where strategic mistrust lingers. Any perception of Russian overreach could create friction in a relationship often described as a "strategic partnership of convenience."
Amid this tense backdrop, should Indonesia permit a Russian military presence, this move would carry profound implications. Such a move would likely provoke unease among regional actors, including Australia and the United States, who maintain strategic interests in Southeast Asia. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese reacted swiftly to the reports, declaring that any Russian deployment in the region would be “unacceptable” and reiterating Canberra’s support for Ukraine in its ongoing war with Moscow. With Biak Island located just 1,400 kilometers from Darwin, the potential militarization of eastern Indonesia carries real strategic consequences for Australia’s northern defense posture.
It will also carry both global and regional implications. The South China Sea itself remains a focal point of international contestation. With nearly one-third of global maritime trade flowing through its waters, the sea is not just a geopolitical flashpoint but a global economy lifeline. For Indonesia, safeguarding the stability of this maritime corridor is a matter of national sovereignty and economic survival. For China, control over the region is central to its ambitions of regional hegemony. Access to these waters provides Russia a platform to challenge the U.S.-led order and reposition itself as a global power. The strategic overlap between these actors, each with distinct goals, makes the South China Sea crowded and increasingly volatile.
Even if the Russian request never materializes, the Biak Island episode is a potent reminder of the speed at which geopolitical tensions can escalate in an era of multipolar competition. Indonesia’s prompt denial of the reports was intended to reaffirm its neutrality and avoid entanglement in superpower rivalries. Yet the fact that such a proposal was even considered plausible illustrates the immense pressure faced by Southeast Asian states as they navigate an increasingly crowded strategic landscape.
Indonesia’s geographic position, economic clout, and diplomatic credibility render it a pivotal actor in Indo-Pacific affairs. As Russia, China, and the West seek to deepen their influence in the region, Jakarta will remain a target of strategic courtship. However subtle or declarative, its choices will be closely watched by allies and adversaries alike.
Ultimately, the controversy surrounding the alleged Russian basing request reveals more than a fleeting geopolitical rumor. It highlights the extent to which shifting alliances, emerging rivalries, and the erosion of traditional geopolitical boundaries are reshaping the Indo-Pacific. The South China Sea is no longer just a contested body of water; it has become a symbol of the broader struggle for power, influence, and stability in the 21st century. Indonesia’s role in this evolving order is far from passive. As regional and global dynamics continue to shift, how Jakarta navigates its path may well shape the contours of the Indo-Pacific for decades to come.
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