Poland’s upcoming presidential election on May 18, 2025, is not merely a contest between three candidates. It is a decisive moment that will shape the country's future, offering a clear choice between competing visions of Poland’s identity, its role within Europe, and its domestic trajectory. As President Andrzej Duda reaches the end of his two terms, the Polish electorate faces a fundamental decision: whether to continue down the nationalist path set by the ruling Law and Justice party or embrace a more pro-European and liberal future, or even take a turn toward far-right populism. The three major candidates vying for the presidency, Rafał Trzaskowski, Karol Nawrocki, and Sławomir Mentzen, each represent a distinct ideological direction, and their campaigns reflect the deeper divisions within Poland.
Rafał Trzaskowski, a polished and charismatic figure, currently serves as the Mayor of Warsaw. He represents the Civic Coalition, a broad pro-European alliance led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Trzaskowski’s political journey has been a steady ascent, from his early days as an advisor in the European Parliament to his eventual rise as a leading figure in Polish local government. His time as mayor of Warsaw has shaped his reputation as a modernizing force, bringing significant investments into the city’s infrastructure, expanding public transport, and advancing green initiatives. Under his leadership, Warsaw has become a symbol of progressivism in Poland, with policies supporting LGBTQ+ rights and environmental sustainability. His tenure, however, has not been without its challenges. As mayor, Trzaskowski faced criticism from conservative quarters for his stance on issues like abortion rights and his efforts to create a more inclusive city environment. This, along with his liberal views, has made him a divisive figure outside the urban centers of Poland.
Trzaskowski’s candidacy is built on the foundation of European integration. He has been an ardent advocate for Poland’s continued participation in the European Union, calling for stronger ties with Brussels while resisting the growing nationalist sentiment that has characterized the ruling party, Law and Justice. His platform promises to restore judicial independence, which has been threatened since PiS introduced judicial reforms in 2015. Trzaskowski has been vocal in his opposition to PiS’s attempts to erode democratic institutions and has pledged to reverse those reforms if elected. His stance on foreign policy also reflects his belief in a liberal, open Europe, where Poland plays an active and supportive role in confronting global challenges, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine. For Trzaskowski, the future of Poland lies in further integration with Europe, advocating for a Poland that is a key player within the EU framework, supporting progressive social policies, and ensuring the rule of law is upheld. His candidacy draws strong support from urban areas, younger voters, and progressive segments of Polish society. He currently leads in the polls with approximately 32% support, though a runoff vote is anticipated on June 1 if no candidate secures an outright majority. Yet, despite this support, his chances of securing a clear victory in the first round of voting remain uncertain, and a runoff election is widely anticipated.
In stark contrast to Trzaskowski stands Karol Nawrocki, a historian with strong nationalist convictions, who represents the ruling Law and Justice party. Nawrocki’s candidacy, though officially independent, is closely tied to PiS and the party’s vision for Poland’s future. His selection as the PiS candidate is a clear indication that the party is doubling down on its agenda of national sovereignty, conservative values, and a more skeptical view of European integration. Nawrocki is a staunch defender of Poland’s national identity and has consistently critiqued the European Union’s increasing push for federalization, framing Poland as a protector of its traditions and culture against outside interference. His tenure as the head of the Institute of National Remembrance has solidified his reputation as a nationalist figure, emphasizing the importance of Polish historical memory and the need for Poland to protect its sovereignty at home and abroad.
Nawrocki’s views on foreign policy reflect his cautious approach to the European Union and a more isolationist stance when it comes to international affairs. He has expressed skepticism about Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the EU, citing historical tensions between Poland and Ukraine, particularly over the Volhynia massacres of World War II. On domestic issues, Nawrocki’s platform is centered around traditional family values, national pride, and a strong defense of Poland’s sovereignty. His vision for Poland’s future hinges on maintaining the status quo within the context of Polish conservatism, championing national identity over international cooperation. Nawrocki’s candidacy will likely resonate deeply with PiS’s base, particularly in rural areas where traditional values are highly prized. However, his critics point to his past associations, including controversial ties to individuals with criminal backgrounds during his youth, as potential liabilities that could undermine his credibility in the eyes of more moderate voters.
The third major candidate, Sławomir Mentzen, represents a far-right populist faction and has quickly risen in prominence due to his outsider status and unconventional approach to politics. Mentzen, an economist by training, leads the Confederation party, which has made significant inroads among disillusioned voters, particularly younger people frustrated with the mainstream political establishment. His platform is a blend of libertarian economic policies and strong nationalist rhetoric. Mentzen advocates for tax cuts, deregulation, and a more laissez-faire approach to the economy, appealing to those who feel that Poland’s current political establishment has not done enough to foster economic growth and opportunity. However, his social policies, which include a strong stance against immigration, a rejection of the European Green Deal, and opposition to what he calls “leftist ideology,” are more controversial and have alienated some voters. Mentzen’s campaign has been bolstered by his adept use of social media, where he has successfully mobilized younger voters disillusioned with the liberal and conservative establishments. Despite this, Mentzen’s hardline positions, especially on issues like abortion and his opposition to the European Union, have led to accusations that he is undermining Poland’s democratic norms in favor of a more authoritarian, nationalist vision. His rise signals a shift toward far-right populism, drawing comparisons to other European far-right movements that have gained momentum in recent years.
The decisions that voters face in the upcoming election will shape the presidency and the course of Poland’s future. A victory for Trzaskowski would likely signal a return to pro-European policies, focusing on social liberalism, progressive reforms, and judicial independence. For those disillusioned with the current government’s judicial reforms and its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, Trzaskowski represents a chance to restore Poland’s democratic values and ensure the country remains an integral part of the European project. On the other hand, a victory for Nawrocki would ensure that PiS’s nationalist agenda continues to dominate Polish politics. Nawrocki’s victory would likely mean a continuation of the party’s skeptical stance toward the European Union, a firmer commitment to Polish sovereignty, and a greater emphasis on traditional values, especially in contrast to the liberalism that Trzaskowski champions. Mentzen, with his far-right rhetoric, represents the most radical shift of all. If he succeeded, it would mark a turning point toward populist nationalism and a move away from the European integration that has shaped Poland’s post-Communist trajectory.
As Poland approaches this crucial election, the questions before the electorate are not just about policies or party lines. They are about the country's future direction, its place in the world, and the values it chooses to uphold. The result of this election will reverberate far beyond Poland’s borders, affecting the broader European Union’s dynamics and the geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe. Poland is at a crossroads, and its choice on May 18 will define its future for future generations.
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