Arizona's Democratic Showdown: Legacy, Youth, and the Future of the 7th District

The political landscape of Arizona's 7th Congressional District was dramatically altered with the unexpected passing of U.S. Representative Raúl Grijalva on March 13, 2025. This vacancy swiftly triggered a special election, with Governor Katie Hobbs mandating a primary on July 15, 2025, and a general election to follow on September 23, 2025, to determine who will serve the remainder of the term expiring in January 2027. The district itself, a sprawling expanse stretching from Yuma to Tucson and tracing much of Arizona's border with Mexico, is a deeply entrenched Democratic stronghold. Its political lean is evident in its Cook PVI rating of D+13 and a voter registration advantage where Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly two to one. This demographic reality, with a predominantly Hispanic population comprising 59.8% of residents, means the Democratic primary is, for all practical purposes, the decisive contest for the seat.  

While this special election will not fundamentally alter the balance of power in the U.S. House, where Republicans currently hold a slender majority, it holds significant national import. It stands as one of three vacancies in reliably Democratic districts that, once filled, will incrementally chip away at that Republican advantage. More profoundly, this primary serves as a compelling internal examination for the Democratic Party, laying bare a generational and ideological struggle for its very future. The compressed timeline of this special election, unfolding rapidly after the vacancy, inherently favors candidates with established name recognition, pre-existing campaign infrastructure, or the proven agility to mobilize resources swiftly. This accelerated pace intensifies the internal party conflict, as candidates are compelled to lean into the core preferences of their base rather than moderating their appeals for a broader general election audience. The contest features three prominent figures: Adelita Grijalva, embodying a progressive legacy; Deja Foxx, representing youthful, digitally-native activism; and Daniel Hernandez Jr., advocating a pragmatic, centrist approach. The outcome will offer crucial insights into which wing of the party resonates most strongly with Arizona Democrats and could signal broader trends for the national party as it navigates its evolving identity.  

Adelita Grijalva, born in 1970, enters this race with a profound political heritage, being the daughter of the late Raúl Grijalva, who served the 7th District for over two decades. Her own political career is extensive and deeply embedded within the Tucson community. She served an impressive 20 years on the Tucson Unified School District Governing Board, becoming its youngest woman elected in 2002, and subsequently held a seat on the Pima County Board of Supervisors for District 5 from 2021 to 2025, where she made history as the first Latina to chair the board. Grijalva's platform firmly aligns with progressive values, emphasizing affordable housing, education, climate and water resiliency, and fostering healthy communities. Her record includes staunch advocacy for Mexican American Studies programs, notably voting against their controversial shutdown in 2012, and successfully championing land acknowledgements to indigenous tribes. She is a vocal opponent of the proposed copper mine at Oak Flat, citing deep concerns from the San Carlos Apache Tribe regarding sacred lands. Furthermore, Grijalva advocates for comprehensive immigration reform, including clear pathways to citizenship, and robust protections for Medicaid, Medicare, and reproductive rights.

Her campaign benefits from a wide array of endorsements, spanning both the establishment and progressive factions of the Democratic Party. She has secured support from prominent state figures such as U.S. Senators Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego, Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes, and former U.S. Representative Gabrielle Giffords. Significantly, national progressive leaders like U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders and U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have also endorsed her, solidifying her progressive credentials. Her campaign demonstrated early organizational strength by quickly meeting signature goals for ballot access. Financially, Grijalva reported raising $835,000 through June 25, 2025, with a late surge in donations bringing her total close to Daniel Hernandez Jr.'s fundraising, leaving her with approximately $128,000 cash on hand. Despite the undeniable advantage of her "legacy" name, Grijalva has actively countered narratives labeling her solely as an "establishment candidate," underscoring her own decades of community engagement and consistent progressive activism. While her father's name provides immediate recognition and credibility, it also opens her to critiques from opponents seeking to frame her as a product of political inheritance. Her ability to garner support from both mainstream and progressive figures within the party suggests a strategic effort to bridge ideological divides, appealing to a broad spectrum of Democratic primary voters. Her consistent record on issues like education, affordable housing, and indigenous rights serves as a powerful testament to her genuine progressive commitment, countering any perception of opportunism.  

At 25 years old, Deja Foxx embodies a distinct, new generation of political leadership and activism. Her journey into public advocacy began at an early age, shaped by personal experiences with hidden homelessness and a deficient sex education system. She first garnered national attention at 16, when she publicly confronted then-Senator Jeff Flake on the critical issue of reproductive rights. Her activism continued through her work with Planned Parenthood, where she served on its Arizona board, and her involvement in movements such as March for Our Lives, including organizing protests against child detention centers. Foxx's political focus has largely remained centered on reproductive rights, notably her work on the Prop 139 Ballot Initiative campaign, which aimed to enshrine abortion rights into Arizona's constitution. Her platform also includes addressing housing affordability through significant social housing investments and increasing Title I funding to support low-income schools.  

Foxx's campaign narrative is deeply personal, emphasizing her lived experience as "the free lunch kid raised by a single mom in Tucson's Section 8 housing". This narrative offers a stark contrast to more traditional political backgrounds and allows her to frame the race as a choice between "predictability versus possibility," directly challenging the "legacy" advantage of her primary opponent. Her campaign is a prime example of leveraging digital platforms for political mobilization. Having served as an influencer and digital strategist for the Kamala Harris campaign in 2019 and as a social media director for a political action committee, Foxx possesses a keen understanding of online engagement. Her current strategy heavily utilizes platforms like TikTok, Facebook, and Instagram for direct voter engagement, conducting live sessions and creating viral content. This digital-first approach has allowed her to bypass traditional media outlets and build robust grassroots following, raising substantial funds from individual donors, many of whom are from outside Arizona. By the end of June, her campaign had raised over $600,000 from 18,000 individual donors, a sum that enabled her to fund television advertisements previously beyond her reach. She has received an endorsement from David Hogg's political action committee, Leaders We Deserve, which explicitly champions generational change within the Democratic Party. Foxx's innovative digital strategy has translated into remarkable polling gains. In mid-May, she held just 10% support, placing her in third. By late June, she had surged to 35%, significantly narrowing Adelita Grijalva's lead to just 8 points (Grijalva 43%, Foxx 35%), while Daniel Hernandez Jr.'s support declined to 9%. This represents a 25% growth in her support in just over a month and correlates directly with a dramatic increase in her name recognition, which jumped from 45% in mid-May to 82% in late June. This rapid shift underscores the profound impact of digital-native campaigns in reshaping primary dynamics, demonstrating how authentic messaging and direct engagement can rapidly build recognition and convert online support into tangible votes, even against well-established opponents.  

Daniel Hernandez Jr., born in 1990, offers a distinct profile in the race, rooted in legislative experience and a defining moment of public service. He served in the Arizona House of Representatives from 2017 to 2023 and on the Sunnyside Unified School District Governing Board from 2011 to 2019, where he advocated for comprehensive sex education and the establishment of a K-8 fine arts magnet school. Hernandez gained national recognition for his actions during the 2011 Tucson shooting, where he is credited with helping to save U.S. Representative Gabby Giffords' life. This harrowing event profoundly shaped his subsequent advocacy for gun violence prevention.  

Hernandez describes his political philosophy as "pragmatic" and is known for his willingness to seek bipartisan solutions and collaborate across the aisle. As one of Arizona's openly gay state legislators and a co-founder of the LGBTQ Caucus, he has championed protections for marginalized communities. His policy stances reflect this centrist approach. While he generally supports reproductive rights and gun violence prevention, his position on the controversial Oak Flat copper mine is more nuanced than his opponents' outright opposition; he suggests that environmental protection and job creation can coexist. Hernandez is also a strong supporter of Israel and advocates for increased government presence at the Mexico-United States border through the use of drones, sensors, and law enforcement. He has focused on economic issues, including supporting small businesses and advocating for K-12 education funding.

Hernandez was an early leader in fundraising, initially attracting significant support from pro-Israel donors. He reported raising $981,000 through June 25, 2025, with his campaign citing a total of $1,029,000, placing him nearly even with Adelita Grijalva in total funds raised. However, his cash on hand at $37,000 was significantly lower than Grijalva's $128,000, suggesting a higher burn rate or a deceleration in fundraising momentum. He is backed by centrist figures such as New York Representative Ritchie Torres. In a deep-blue district that often favors more ideologically pure candidates in primaries, a centrist approach like Hernandez's faces an inherent challenge. His willingness to collaborate with Republicans, while potentially appealing in a general election, may resonate less with a primary electorate seeking clear ideological alignment. His nuanced stances on issues like the Oak Flat mine and his strong pro-Israel position could potentially alienate some progressive voters. Despite these challenges, his defining personal narrative from the Giffords shooting provides an exceptionally powerful asset, imbuing him with a distinct moral authority on issues like gun control and offering a unique, emotionally resonant connection with voters that transcends traditional policy debates.  

The polling data for the Arizona 7th Congressional District Democratic primary reveals a dynamic and shifting electoral landscape. Early in April 2025, Adelita Grijalva held a commanding lead with 49% support, while Daniel Hernandez Jr. stood at 11% and Deja Foxx at a mere 5%, with a substantial 35% of voters remaining undecided. By mid-May, Grijalva maintained her lead, albeit slightly diminished, at 41%. Hernandez saw a modest increase to 16%, and Foxx's support rose to 10%, with the undecided segment still significant at 32%.  

The most notable development has been Deja Foxx's rapid ascent in the polls. A Change Research poll conducted from June 26-29, 2025, showed Foxx surging to 35% support, effectively narrowing Grijalva's lead to just 8 points (Grijalva 43%, Foxx 35%). During this period, Hernandez's support declined to 9%. This represents a remarkable 25% growth in support for Foxx in just over a month. This surge directly correlates with a dramatic increase in her name recognition; in mid-May, only 45% of likely primary voters recognized her name, a figure that soared to 82% by late June. Adelita Grijalva, already well-known due to her father's legacy, saw her name identification increase modestly by 14% to 81%. The polls indicate that more than half of voters had not yet cast their ballots by late June, suggesting that the race remains fluid and the momentum could continue to shift. Foxx's campaign believes that securing even a small percentage of these undecided or late-deciding voters could secure her the nomination. The persistent and significant percentage of undecided voters, even in the final weeks, indicates a highly competitive race where late-breaking decisions will be crucial. This suggests that while Grijalva has a strong base, she has not yet fully consolidated support, leaving a substantial opening for Foxx to capitalize on her recent momentum.